(Via Bio-IT World) Apparently, Frank Douglas, former CEO of Aventis, brought up the metaphor of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s controversial idea and it’s potential impact on the biopharma industry. Speaking as the opening keynote at the DDT conference, Douglas predicted that in 10 years the industry would look very different.
One of the potential Black Swan scenario’s that he presented was one where there would be just 3-4 top pharma, complemented by a number of small specialty players, strategic global outsourcing, increased emphasis on virtual research, and VC firms acting as research translators. Is it me or is this scenario a eerily similar to the enterprise software industry. And is this even a Black Swan scenario? If one looks at what’s happened over the past few years, such a scenario seems well within the realm of possibility. It is certainly not a scenario which seems like it will be creative or nimble enough to develop and bring to market a new generation of medicine. What do you think?
Technorati Tags: Pharma, Biotech, Black Swan
8 Comments
No, it doesn’t sound like a recipe for creative research.
Unfortunately, I can’t get past the phrase “black swan” because here in Australia, they’re far more common than white ones…
Actually the Australian black swans are part of the reason behind the Black Swan philosophy.
From Wikipedia
“The term black swan comes from the ancient Western conception that all swans were white in color. In that context, a black swan was a metaphor for something that could not exist. The 17th Century discovery of black swans in Australia metamorphosed the term to connote that the perceived impossibility actually came to pass.”
Interesting! Yes Australia, land of impossible things. We also have a venomous egg-laying mammal with a beak
Actually the Australian black swans are part of the reason behind the Black Swan philosophy.
From Wikipedia
“The term black swan comes from the ancient Western conception that all swans were white in color. In that context, a black swan was a metaphor for something that could not exist. The 17th Century discovery of black swans in Australia metamorphosed the term to connote that the perceived impossibility actually came to pass.”
Interesting! Yes Australia, land of impossible things. We also have a venomous egg-laying mammal with a beak
Actually, Taleb was on Charlie Rose’s interview show on PBS here in the US recently and noted that much of drug discovery could be considered a “Black Swan”, which he uses as a metaphor for highly improbable events. He cited penicillin and more recent discoveries, such as proposed heart treatments that had other effects (I’ll not mention the specific example, since it’s often associated with Spam).
Claiborne
Should go try and find that interview. I am pretty sure I know which Pfizer compound he was talking about
, but I
am not sure I would consider it a Black Swan (Penicillin would be one though).
What I take away from Taleb is this. Always be ready for the unexpected, and make sure that you are ready to take advantage or mitigate any sudden risk.
Claiborne
Should go try and find that interview. I am pretty sure I know which Pfizer compound he was talking about
, but I
am not sure I would consider it a Black Swan (Penicillin would be one though).
What I take away from Taleb is this. Always be ready for the unexpected, and make sure that you are ready to take advantage or mitigate any sudden risk.
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